How will the year 2020 shape up for Roger Federer? Here’s what we believe could happen in this upcoming year for who is considered perhaps the ‘greatest of all time’ tennis players, Federer.
Leading the all-time grand slam count with 20 titles, 2019 saw no additions to the major titles for Roger Federer. However, it was a year of several highs for the Swiss nevertheless, with four titles, including his 100th in Dubai, a record 10th Swiss Indoors title in his home town of Basel and a 10th title at Halle, and an addition to his Masters 1000 count at Miami.
The year also witnessed a return to the clay for the first time since 2015 (with a good showing) and appearing in a Wimbledon final for the ages, with a heart- breaking loss, among other positive results at different points in the year.
At 38 years of age, the retirement talks and rumors get louder intermittently, but tennis fans (and especially Federer fans) have spent most of the last decade speculating and wondering when that maybe. Ending the year ranked number three in the world and still a title contender at every tournament and every surface he plays on, the Swiss maestro continues to marvel audiences globally as he completes almost two decades on the professional tour.
With many feeling that 2020 may well be his last year on the tour, all we have heard from Federer is how he is looking forward to another year on the tour and feels as healthy and happy as he ever has, and looks forward to playing all the majors and the Olympics this forthcoming season.
Below is how we believe Federer’s 2020 season might go.
Australian Open is Best Shot at #21
One of the big questions always looming around the ‘Big Three’ (Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic) is the ‘Greatest of All Time”, and one of the most relevant factors there, is the Grand Slam tally.
With Federer, Nadal and Djokovic at 20,19, and 16 titles respectively, and with Federer’s remaining shelf life arguably less than the others, slam number 21 will put him a long way ahead of the his two closest contenders. The Swiss will continue to rue his missed match point opportunities at the Wimbledon final this year against Novak Djokovic, which would have put him further ahead in the race.
Despite being regarded as the ‘King of Grass’ and always among the favorites at Wimbledon, TWL believes that the Australian Open remains Federer’s best chance of winning a major this year. The fast Melbourne courts, the fresh legs at the start of the season, the upcoming newbies still getting into the groove that early, are all factors that work to Federer’s advantage.
Although Djokovic searching for his eighth Australian Open title will begin as favorite, of late he has not given the feeling of invincibility and of being the overwhelming favorite that he always is. If Federer gets to week two without breaking much of a sweat, it will be folly to disregard him as a serious contender for holding silverware on the second Sunday of the slam Down Under.
Our Prediction: Federer begins on level footing with Djokovic as an Aussie Open favorite
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Unlike 2019, Clay Season in 2020 Will Not Be Equally Positive
Federer returned to the clay courts in 2019 for the first time since 2015. With injuries in 2016, and an attempt to play a limited balanced schedule in 2017-2018, the Swiss decided to skip the clay swing from his itinerary.
The Swiss returned to the clay in 2019 amidst speculation of this being the swansong playing the Masters 1000s at Madrid and Rome and the French Open (tickets for 2020 French Open should be soon out here). It was an impressive run, culminating in a semi-final loss at Roland Garros to none other than the one and only Rafa Nadal.
Federer has indicated that he will play the French Open again in 2020, but with his schedule including the Olympics this time around, he will likely not play in any other clay warm-ups.
A switch from the Madrid hard courts in March to the French Open in May-June with a relatively long break and minimal match practice on the clay will make for a very challenging second major of the year for the 2009 French Open winner.
Our Prediction: Federer’s 2020 French Open won’t match his 2019 success
Elusive Gold in Tokyo?
One of the few accolades that has eluded Federer is the Olympic gold. The Swiss played the title round at the London Olympics in 2012, but had to be content with second prize, with Andy Murray winning gold.
The knee injury (that at the time seemed career ending) of 2016 resulted in Federer withdrawing from the Olympics in Rio that year. At the time it seemed it was his final attempt at an Olympics gold that had been missed out on.
The Federer revival of 2017 and onwards since, has resulted in the Swiss confirming his participation at the Tokyo Olympics of 2020.
With the Tokyo Olympics placed at a busy part of the season (after Wimbledon and before the US Open), on the hard courts where most of the upcoming ‘Next Gen’ have proven their abilities in the season gone by, the Swiss maestro will have his task cut out going for gold.
Assuming Federer will give it his best on the grass courts of Halle and Wimbledon, the tank maybe a little empty by the time he gets to Tokyo. The singles gold having eluded Novak Djokovic thus far as well, one can expect the Serb to go all out to add this to his collection as well.
Our Prediction: Federer will not win the gold at the Tokyo Olympics
Title Count for 2020
When Roger Federer took an extended break from the tour due to a knee injury in 2016, his career title count was at 88. When he returned to the tour at age 35 in January 2017, not even the most daring of gamblers would have predicted another 15 titles in three years with his title count at 103 going into 2020.
Playing between 12-14 titles annually, Federer won seven titles in 2017 and followed it with four in each of 2018 and 2019.
The Swiss remains a contender at every tournament he plays and that trend will continue for the most part, in 2020. While it maybe difficult to envision Federer or any of the Big Three win mid-to-high single digit titles in a year anymore given the competition, venues like Dubai, Halle, and Basel among others continue to remain his backyard. Challenges provided by Next Gen at all tournaments will continue to get stiffer with every passing tournament.
Our Prediction: Federer to win 2 ATP 500 titles; will take plenty to win a Masters 1000 or a Major
The Big One. Swansong 2020?
Most of this decade has gone by speculating Federer calling time on his glorious and almost fairytale tennis career. In the meantime, Federer has gone from his early to mid to now late thirties surprising and marveling one and all among tennis enthusiasts and experts.
With three majors and four Masters 1000s since the age of 35, and ending the year in the top three of the world rankings in each of the last years, Federer has dismissed all speculation of retirements with focus on happiness on the tour, support of family, feeling physically fit and good results.
However, with the advent of the ‘Next Gen’, it has become increasingly more evident that the Big Three and Roger Federer more so are considerably more beatable now than even a year earlier. Dominic Thiem, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alexander Zverev hold a 6-2 record against Federer in 2019, a trend that is likely to continue in the upcoming season.
TWL believes that 2020 will see these challenges getting harder and the ‘aging’ Federer find fewer ways to counter them. With the likes of Thiem, Tsitsipas, Medvedev and others moving up the rankings, holding onto a top five ranking will only get more difficult for the Swiss.
With the Swiss Indoors in his hometown of Basel late in the season, it seems like an apt time for the maestro to call time on his brilliant career.
Our Prediction: Federer to call time at the end of 2020
Well, what do you think?
Also, if you have got till here, you can also read our predictions for both Rafael Nadal here and Novak Djokovic here.
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