Despite being at different stages of the competition at the moment, bookmakers have both Roger Federer and Daniil Medvedev pegged at the same odds to win the 2020 Australian Open.
Federer has already made it through to the quarterfinal after beating Marton Fucsovics in an earlier match today and he is 7/1 (with bet365 here) to add a 21st title to his list of Grand Slams at the moment. What that implies he needs to win three matches in a row, including his quarterfinal against Tennys Sandgren to win the Australian Open.
On the other hand, Medvedev is still to play his fourth round match, which he does early on Monday against Stan Wawrinka. If he wins that, and three further matches from there on to win the title, bookmakers are offering the same 7/1 to punters. In short, Federer’s recent struggles in the competition haven’t gone unnoticed by them.
Federer was on the verge of getting knocked out by John Millman in the third round, down 8-4 in the final set tie-breaker before he stormed back to win it 10-8. Then, in the fourth round, Marton Fucovics managed to take a set off Federer before the Swiss maestro eased to a victory.
And while he has been handed a stunning quarterfinal draw, as he takes on the world number 100 Tennys Sandgren, things could get very difficult very quickly for him. Because if he wins against Sandgren, he could be faced with the prospect of playing Novak Djokovic in the semifinal. Djokovic will need to obviously beat Milos Raonic to get there but having never lost to his Canadian opponent in the past, he starts an overwhelming favourite.
The Djokovic-Federer match is usually quite a gritty battle, but the Serb world number two has shown exquisite form at the 2020 Australian Open so far, winning all his matches in straight sets and without too much trouble. As mentioned earlier, Federer has seen more than his share of trouble already.
Which brings us to Daniil Medvedev, who is dreaming of winning his first ever Grand Slam. He came close to doing that at the 2019 US Open when he made the final and took Rafael Nadal to the fifth set, losing it eventually. He was stretched to four sets in his opener by a tricky opponent in Frances Tiafoe before easing past Pedro Portero and Alexei Popyrin in a hurry.
He now plays a tough fourth round opponent in Wawrinka, but an opposition he had bested at that very US Open last year. That had, in fact, been their second meeting and Medvedev had won the previous one too. Even if he does beat Wawrinka again, Medvedev doesn’t have it easy in the quarterfinals either – taking on the winner of the Andrey Rublev-Alexander Zverev match and then a potential semifinal against Rafael Nadal.
Which is why it might make more sense to go for the 7/1 for a Federer win ahead of the Medvedev victory.