2020 saw Andrey Rublev winning five ATP titles, which was more than anyone on the tour, and made for a complete turnaround over 18 months from injury breaks, poor form and early losses. It now remains to be seen if 2021 will be the year when Rublev establishes himself at the Masters 1000 and Majors.
The Post Injury Turnaround
Andrey Rublev burst onto the scene in 2017, at the age of 19, when he made the quarter-finals of the US Open defeating the then number seven ranked Grigor Dimitrov in straight sets and displayed potential and promise.
The Russian continued the good run and was a finalist the same year at the ATP Next Gen Finals in Milan, runner-up to eventual champion Hyeon Chung.
Going into 2018 with plenty of promise, Rublev did not have the best of seasons as he was plagued with injuries and eventually ended his season prematurely with back related issues. Upon his return to the season in 2019, it was a mix of injury recurrences, poor form and disappointing losses.
However, a good run at the ATP 500 in Hamburg, followed by the ATP Masters 1000 in Cincinnati in 2019, saw Rublev return to his winning ways with victories against the likes of Dominic Thiem, Stanislas Wawrinka and Roger Federer.
2019 ended with a title at the Kremlin Cup in Moscow and Rublev was well and truly back on the tour, hoping for a better 2020 ahead and onward.
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A Breakthrough 2020
2020 was off to a strong start for Rublev with titles at Doha and Adelaide in January itself leading to the Australian Open, evidencing that the late 2019 run was no flash in the pan.
While a fourth round loss at the Australian Open was less than encouraging, quarter-finals at Rotterdam and Dubai ensured that Rublev headed to the unprecedented Covid-19 hiatus high on confidence.
The 23-year-old Rublev’s return to the tour after the pandemic break seemed to pick up from where he had left off as he was a quarter-finalist at both the US & French Opens and won titles at St Petersburg, Hamburg and Vienna, making it three ATP 500s in a row.
At the back of these favorable showings, Rublev broke into the top ten in the ATP rankings for the first time and the continued good run saw him qualify for the year-end ATP Tour Finals in London.
Although he did not get past the group stages at the Tour Finals, Rublev registered a good win against Dominic Thiem and ended a strong breakthrough year with plenty to look forward to in 2021.
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What Does 2021 Hold for Rublev?
With five ATP titles in 2020, Rublev will head into 2021 high on confidence and hoping to attain new heights. In spite of his successes this year, he was unable to record wins against the likes of Nadal & Djokovic, as well as against Medvedev (US Open), Zverev (Australian Open) and Tsitsipas (French Open) on the biggest stages.
It is evident from his records in 2020, that Rublev is most comfortable on the hard courts indoors and outdoors. The Russian will look to begin 2021 from where he left off in 2020 and maintain the momentum. With the surface to his liking Down Under, he will hope to perform well at the Australian Open and can expect to be a strong contender heading into the middle of week two.
Rublev’s game is no stranger to the slower clay surface either and back-to-back years have seen him perform well at the Hamburg Open, and this year in addition he was a quarter-finalist at Roland Garros as well.
Although the likes of Nadal, Djokovic and Thiem will start the French Open as the favorites, Rublev will definitely be someone to watch out for with his strong groundstrokes and overall strength from the back of the court.
A two-time quarter-finalist on the hard courts of Flushing, New York, Rublev is no stranger there now and will look to better his record there in 2021. With minimal exposure and success on grass, Wimbledon will likely remain his most difficult surface and he will hope to up his grass stakes with a week two appearance, if possible.
Rublev will look to better his performance at the Majors undoubtedly, and while a first Major win still seems somewhat away, it should not be a surprise to see him in the last four of grand slams outside of grass.
With the Masters 1000s played primarily on hard courts (indoors and outdoors) as well as clay, the Russian will be looking to 2021 to win his first ATP Masters 1000. Expect him to be a force on the Masters on the red dirt, but the likelihood of a maiden Masters 1000 title seems high indoors in Paris and Shanghai, and on the outdoor North American hard courts.
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2021 Predictions for Rublev
Andrey Rublev established himself as a force on the tour at the back of a very successful 2020, but will want to step it up a notch and be a crucial contender at the Majors and the Masters. While the Russian has the temperament and ability to compete with the best, the established and ‘almost’ established field on the biggest stage is crowded and remains so.
TWL expects Rublev to prove in 2021 that he continues to belong to the league of Grand Slam quarter-finalists and even semi-finalists, but will remain a step away from being in contention for his first major. Expect Rublev to have a serious claim on Masters 1000 titles, especially indoors and on the hard courts.