The 2023 Australian Open draw is officially out and has thrown up a plethora of enticing matchups from the first round. Defending champion Rafael Nadal and nine-time Australian Open winner Novak Djokovic have been pitted in opposite halves of the draw.
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The 22-time Major winner has a battle in his hands if he aims to get to another final at Melbourne Park. He is projected to meet the man he beat in last year’s final – Daniil Medvedev – in the quarterfinal.
Elsewhere, Novak Djokovic will be the man to beat, as he always is, in this part of the world. Djokovic is going for title No. 10 and has the kindest of draws by the looks of things.
There is also plenty of interest in up-and-coming young players such as Holger Rune, Lorenzo Musetti, Jannik Sinner, Jack Draper, and Brandon Nakashima. While in-form players such as Taylor Fritz, Frances Tiafoe, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Matteo Berrettini will all be looking to make an impression and potentially dethrone the likes of Nadal and Djokovic.
In this article, we shall delve into analyzing those matches and the probable routes of all the top players in the men’s singles field.
Australian Open 2023 Draw Analysis
First Quarter: Nadal and Medvedev Land in the Same Section
Just before the draw was made, a lot of questions were raised regarding Rafael Nadal’s form going to Melbourne Park.
It’s safe to say the Spaniard is not having any physical issues whatsoever, having played two singles matches at the United Cup. But the fact that Nadal has looked beatable since his shock fourth-round loss to Frances Tiafoe at the US Open is what will worry his fans.
The defending champion will face British No. 3 Jack Draper who is one the Tour’s most promising young prospects in an intriguing first round and could meet Next Gen ATP Finals champion Brandon Nakashima thereafter.
Aside from that, a potential fourth-rounder against Tiafoe could also loom large. It would be a rematch of their US Open bout last September.
Nadal and Daniil Medvedev are locked in to meet each other in the quarterfinals. The Russian hasn’t shaken off last year’s defeat in the final, after squandering a two-sets-to-love lead.
But should the pair clash again, Medvedev will be a firm favorite to sail past the Spaniard. However, Medvedev could have his hands full in the third round against in-form Sebastian Korda.
The lanky American took Novak Djokovic to his absolute limits in Adelaide two weeks ago and could surprise many at this year’s Australian Open.
Probable Quarterfinal: Frances Tiafoe (16) vs Sebastian Korda (29)
Full Australian Open men's singles draw: pic.twitter.com/ZxaSvp0wFq
— Tumaini Carayol (@tumcarayol) January 12, 2023
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Second Quarter: In-form Tsitsipas Has Plenty of Big Hitters in His Way
Greece’s top-ranked player Stefanos Tsitsipas is the third seed. He opens up against a pesky customer in Quentin Halys. The Frenchman played some scintillating tennis in Adelaide 1, and only lost heartbreakingly to Djokovic in two tiebreaks.
Tsitsipas will most likely play one of two Italians in the fourth round. Jannik Sinner and Lorenzo Musetti are strong favorites to navigate their way into a mouthwatering third-rounder.
And in the bottom half of this quarter, Canada’s powerhouse Felix Auger-Aliassime will be keen to get off the mark in 2023. The sixth seed suffered a damaging defeat in Adelaide 1 to Alexei Popyrin, meaning he comes to Melbourne with his confidence tarnished.
He will face countryman Vasek Pospisil in the first round – hardly a stroll in the park on quick surfaces and could deal with Stan Wawrinka in the second round.
Should the seeds hold, Tsitsipas and Auger-Aliassime should make it to the last eight. But British lefty Cameron Norrie has a very kind draw and might produce his best showing yet at the Australian Open.
Probable Quarterfinal: Stefanos Tsitsipas (3) vs Cameron Norrie (11)
Third Quarter: Who will Stop Novak Djokovic?
I think the big question in everyone’s mind is whether Novak Djokovic can be stopped at this year’s Australian Open. Djokovic is now 5/6 with some markets to win the whole thing which is crazy. A lot of that has to do with his draw and his record in this part of the continent.
Djokovic hasn’t lost a match on Australian soil since 2018. And he hasn’t lost an Australian Open final in his lifetime. Will he make it a perfect 10 this year? Possibly.
If you delve into this section of the draw, you can’t help but feel Nick Kyrgios might be the man who could actually test him. And the Aussie won’t even be operating close to full fitness having just returned from an ankle injury.
Andrey Rublev is out of form. He was winless in the tuneup events and faces a potential minefield to even make it to the quarterfinals to play Djokovic.
Probable Quarterfinal: Novak Djokovic (4) vs Nick Kyrgios (19)
Fourth Quarter: An Open Section
This is the most open quarter of the draw, but one name that stands out from the rest is that of Taylor Fritz. The American No. 1 is playing the best tennis of his life. And he arrives at Melbourne fresh from guiding his country to a maiden United Cup triumph.
Fritz will in all likelihood play Alexander Zverev in the fourth round. Zverev leads the head-to-head 4-3, but lost so convincingly to the American at the United Cup.
On the other side of the draw, Matteo Berrettini will play three-time Grand Slam champion Andy Murray in a popcorn opener. The Italian has plenty of heavy hitters in his way including Thanasi Kokkinakis (potential second-round match), and the second seed Casper Ruud in the fourth round.
If Berrettini can replicate his fine form from the United Cup, we might see a rematch between Fritz and the Italian in the space of just a few weeks.
Probable Quarterfinal: Taylor Fritz (8) vs Matteo Berrettini (13)
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