As tennis media and fans look forward to 2020, speculation continues to remain around the transition in the men’s game from the ‘Big Three’ era (Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic) to the ‘Next Gen’ (likes of Stefanos Tsitsipas, Alexander Zverev, Daniil Medvedev, Dominic Thiem and others). Our expert, Samir Talwar predicts who the next new number one will be.
While tournaments outside the majors are clearly shared-territory for the Big Three with the upcoming generation, the Grand Slams are still all about Nadal-Djokovic-Federer, having won the last 12 in a row now, and 55 among themselves in the last decade and a half.
Given such dominance on the biggest stage, it is only obvious that the top of the ATP world rankings have also been dominated by the Big Three. With Nadal ending this year as world number one, he has equalled Federer and Djokovic, finishing as year end number one for the fifth time.
15 of the last 16 years has seen one of the Big Three end as number one, with Andy Murray ending as number one after a phenomenal 2016.
In fact, the top three spots in the ATP rankings over the last decade (and more), has seen some combination of Federer, Nadal, Djokovic for a majority of the time, with Andy Murray evidently being the most noteworthy competitor.
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In the latter half of this decade, each of the Big Three has taken breaks from the game as a result of medium to long term injuries, only to come back stronger. During their hiatus, the world number three spot has seen different holders such as Marin Cilic, Juan Martin Del Potro, Stanislas Wawrinka, Grigor Dimitrov, Alexander Zverev and others.
However, there has never been a viable contender from the upcoming generation for the world number one ranking thus far. The question that all the speculation around the changing of the guard also brings up is whether 2020 could possibly see a new world number one.
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The ATP points system sees Nadal begin 2020 as world number one, with Djokovic not too far behind. Although Federer ended the year as number three, he is considerably behind the top two in ATP points, and not too far ahead of what is a crowded Next Gen to follow him in world rankings.
Numbers four to seven are occupied by Thiem, Medvedev, Tsitsipas and Zverev, each of whom is a viable contender in 2020, to end the Big Three dominance in the majors and in turn move up further in the rankings, given the emphasis on Grand Slams in rankings points earned during the course of the year.
With the relatively limited schedule that Federer plays (compared to the younger crop), given his age and in an effort to preserve his fitness and enhance his longevity in the game, it will be no surprise if one or more of the highest ranked Next Gen move beyond him in the ATP rankings in 2020.
Each of Thiem, Zverev and Tsitsipas have defeated him in 2019, with Thiem and Tsitsipas beating him a total of five times during the year.
What does remain as the big open question is – who, if anyone, can be a challenger to the top two in the ATP rankings?
With a multitude of contenders to take over the baton, world number four Dominic Thiem looks most likely to be the biggest threat to Nadal and Djokovic in 2020, and in turn be more than an outsider at being world number one in 2020.
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Nadal and Djokovic are each defending two majors in 2020, with Nadal being champion at the French Open and US Open, and Djokovic in Australia and Wimbledon respectively.
Thiem has been a member of the top 10 ranked players on the ATP circuit continuously since June 2016, and has already proved himself to be a force through the long clay season. The Austrian has defeated all of Nadal, Djokovic and Federer on the red dirt, and most notably beaten the ‘King of Clay’, Nadal every year on the clay. Where Thiem has fallen short on clay, is having been runner-up to Nadal two years in a row now at the French Open.
With the Austrian getting stronger and more consistent every year, 2020 may well be the year of the passing of the baton from Nadal to him on the Roland Garros clay.
In recent years, and more so in 2019, the world number four has proven himself to be a contender not only on the clay but also on the faster hard courts and indoor surfaces given his results this year.
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Thiem won the Indian Wells Masters 1000 (defeating Federer in the finals), as well as won titles on the hard courts in Beijing, and indoors in Vienna. At the year end ATP Tour Finals on the fast indoor surface at the O2 arena, the Austrian was a runner-up to Tsitsipas in a tightly-fought final, having already defeated Djokovic and Federer in the group stages.
As we head into the new year and new decade, Thiem will be a viable contender for a deep run in Melbourne, Paris and New York (form and fitness permitting). His capabilities during the shorter grass court run (culminating in Wimbledon) have thus far seemed limited but that may well evolve in the next 12-24 months.
With both Nadal and Djokovic defending a total of 4,000 ATP points each at the majors, and the challenges of defending such titles become increasingly more each year with the bridge between them and the others getting narrower, their stronghold on the ATP rankings will in turn weaken as well.
Another good run for Thiem in 2020 with titles outside of the majors almost looks certain. What remains to be seen is if this could well be the year where the Austrian could win his first (and maybe second) Grand Slam title/s. Thiem is more than ready to break through on the biggest of stages and once he gets there, given the quality player that he is, the increased belief and confidence will ensure that he is not a one-time holder of Grand Slam glory.
Expect Dominic Thiem to be a frequent member at the deep end of majors in 2020, and in turn be the most noteworthy competitor to the Big Three at the top of the ATP rankings. The new decade may not only see a new Grand Slam winner but a new world number one.
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