The 2020 tennis season was one of a kind that saw so much that was atypical. An almost five month pause for the tour, cancellation of Wimbledon, postponement of the Olympic games, tournaments with masks and no fans and an October French Open are novel and unique and not something anyone could have predicted.
Pandemic or not, if there is one thing that remained constant; it was Rafa Nadal and Roland Garros.
Winning a 13th French Open title and equaling Roger Federer’s all time record of 20 major titles, Nadal continued to defy any and all odds that when it came to the red dirt, and was still the undisputed ‘King Of Clay’.
Winning a 14th title at Roland Garros and a 21st major tournament will be both very high on Nadal’s goals for 2021 and will anyone be picking against that?
An Unparalleled Career
Since he played his first ever French Open in 2005, and went on to win the title as a 19-year-old, the Rafael Nadal story has been one that will go down as among the more gloried chapters in the history of the sport.
Branded as the ‘King of Clay’, Nadal has won 13 French Open titles over the last 16 years, and boasts of a 100-2 Win/Loss record at Roland Garros that is evidence of domination that is rarely seen anywhere in tennis or any sport.
Over the years, Nadal ensured that his game evolved in such a manner that he was a force to reckon with on all surfaces. Four US Open, two Wimbledon and one Australian Open title serve as testimony to the fact that the Spaniard is as much an all round player as anyone the game has witnessed.
[the_ad id=”14063″]
With twenty major titles, five year-end ATP world number one rankings, four US Open titles in the last decade, and ending the year at world number two 16 years after he was first ranked number two in the world, Nadal remains a member of the coveted ‘Big Three’ and has had a career unparalleled by most in the sport, and one that perhaps has more pages of greatness yet to be turned.
Is the Nadal Dominance Waning?
Since his return to the Tour in late 2016/early 2017 after (yet another) injury laden hiatus, Nadal has won six major titles, that include four French Open and two US Open titles respectively.
The two-time Wimbledon champion has not managed to break the Djokovic- Federer stronghold on grass (Wimbledon primarily), and a mix of Nadal injuries and superior display by the likes of Novak Djokovic and the young brigade have held Nadal back at the first major of the year in Melbourne Park.
With the continued strong return of Novak Djokovic to the tour in 2018, the presence of the evergreen Roger Federer, and the rise of the likes of Daniil Medvedev (his 2021 predictions here), Dominic Thiem, Alexander Zverev (his 2021 predictions here), Stefanos Tsitsipas and the rest of the young brigade, Nadal is definitely more beatable today than a few years ago.
However, come the red dirt of Europe and particularly Roland Garros, he is still close to untouchable.
After losing to Diego Schwartzman at the Rome Masters 1000 in straight sets, very few would have picked Nadal in the French Open final against world number one Novak Djokovic, and certainly nobody would have predicted a title round match which saw the Serb winning only two games in the first two sets.
Also Read:
What Does 2021 Hold for Nadal?
Over the past couple seasons, Nadal has looked more beatable than earlier and tennis fans have witnessed losses to not only the likes of Djokovic and Federer, but also the incoming generation.
While he has succumbed on his less favorite surfaces such as grass and the indoor fast hard courts, the likes of Dominic Thiem have got the better of him on the European clay as well, barring the French Open.
2021 may well be Nadal’s most challenging year yet. With the pressure of the 21st Grand slam on the cards, the Spaniard will continue to realize the importance of managing the schedule well especially as he is well and truly into his mid 30s and as the sport continues to encounter bubbles and quarantines as the pandemic continues, all of which leads to more mental (and physical) strain on athletes.
Nadal’s best years on grass are now well and truly behind him and if he plays a busy clay schedule as he usually does, the short turnaround time from clay to grass will once again leave him with no room for warm-ups as his body needs the well deserved rest after the grind on clay.
Expecting the Spaniard to be a contender for a grass slam may now be something of the past.
[the_ad id=”14063″]
The indoor hard courts have never been to his liking as he has only two of his career titles on this surface, with the ATP Tour Finals and the Paris Masters missing from his mightily impressive resume.
Defeats of the nature of those to Zverev at the Paris Masters (2020), Medvedev & Thiem at the Tour Finals (2020), among others have made it clear that it is now too late in his career for Nadal to try and adjust himself to winning titles in such conditions. An aggressive serve and net game took him only as far as the final four at the O2 arena this time around.
Experts and fans would like to believe that the slower outdoor hard courts are still to his liking.
With a favored draw along the lines of 2017 and 2019 in Flushing, the slower US Open courts as well as those at the Canadian Masters could still see him pull a title out of the bag, as much as one will need to accept that the list of title contenders extends beyond the Big Three in all such situations now.
Since a fantastic Australian Open win in 2009 in an epic final against Roger Federer, a major title win Down Under has seemed like a distant memory for Nadal.
The Spaniard has been unfortunate with injuries and related withdrawals when he has looked in excellent form, most recently against Marin Cilic in the 2018 quarter-final.
And when his health has not been a concern, he has run into a red-hot, now eight time Aussie Open winner in Novak Djokovic and the outcome has not been pretty; point in case the 2019 Australian Open final.
In 2021, Djokovic, Thiem and Medvedev would start higher up than Nadal in the list of favorites for the first major of the year.
All things taken into account, there is still no one better suited than Nadal to dominate the clay season and as many pundits have said, one can only believe Nadal losing at Roland Garros, when it happens – so far only twice out of the last 102 times.
If 2021 sees a full clay season, i.e. Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Madrid, Rome and the French Open, Nadal will still be predicted to potentially win a mix of two to three titles, if not more on that list.
In recent years, Djokovic and Thiem have been just behind Nadal as favorites for the French Open, but they will remain there for the moment, looking forward to 2021. We strongly believe that clay will once again be the best swing for the world number two to add to his title bag and Nadal will once again start as a strong favorite to add to his major title count.
A non Rafa Nadal winner at Roland Garros may well see Nadal and Federer tied eternally at 20 majors and no more, somewhat fittingly here on.
2021 Predictions for Nadal
Expect Nadal to continue to play a more measured schedule as the Spaniard approaches the age of 35 in 2021.
But, come the majors and the Masters 1000s and other such noteworthy tournaments, there are only a handful of opponents who would still be picked as favorites against the likes of Nadal.
2021 will see the distance between the Big Three and the rest get narrower than it has ever been, but come the European clay swing Nadal will still be the man to beat, and it will take a strong performance to stop Roland Garros #14 and in turn Grand Slam #21 for the King of Clay.