Rafael Nadal will be a heavy favourite to win his 14th French Open title when he faces Norway’s surprise finalist Casper Ruud on Sunday, June 5. Our three best betting tips for this French Open 2022 men’s singles final can be found below.
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Banker Bet: Games Handicap Nadal -4.5 (2/5 with bet365)
Nadal might not have been at his best all tournament, as was evidenced by his fourth round encounter against Felix Auger-Aliassime and then again when he struggled to hold his serve against Alexander Zverev in the second set.
In fact there were occasions during that entire match against Zverev – which lasted less than two sets – Nadal looked vulnerable and beatable.
Does that makes things difficult for Nadal? Well, may be but a lot will depend on his fitness and if the Spaniard’s injury issues aren’t quite bothering him too much, he should get through easily.
Even if this get stretched to a fourth set – not saying it would – it could be down to Ruud winning 7-5 or a tie-breaker and for Nadal to still win the other sets relatively comfortably. A -4.5 games handicap bet sounds like par for the course as your banker bet for the day.
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Medium-Risk Bet: Over 33.5 games in the match (5/6 with bet365)
So continuing from the banker bet above, we believe Nadal will be a heavy favourite here obviously but fitness will play its part.
Ruud has quietly moved through not just the draw but also in clay court competitions in general over the last couple of years and while not too many expected him to get to the final here, he has earned his stripes.
The Norwegian player has nothing to lose and given his extreme underdog status will fancy his chances here of running Nadal around, at least early in the match.
We could even see Ruud pull off a set win here but even if he doesn’t expecting two of the sets to be run close and as a result, over 33.5 games looks like a good bet.
High-Risk: Over 10.5 games in the first set (3/1 with bet365)
This is a big call but Ruud could come out firing all cylinders and we could see Nadal getting pushed in the opening set.
A 6-4 sort of a scoreline sounds more viable (i.e. 10 games in the match which pays out 1/1) but this is a higher risk bet we are looking at and there’s that reasonable chance of a 7-5 or even a tie-breaker first up.
So, a 3/1 return for over 10.5 games doesn’t sound very unlikely to us.