With Rafael Nadal and Daniil Medvedev out of the tournament, the men’s US Open will see a first-time Grand Slam winner. In the women’s half, Iga Swiatek remains the favourite to win the women’s title – but will likely face resistance in the coming matches. Let’s take a look at how the betting scenario stands after the round of 16 play.
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Tiafoe Upsets Nadal
Number 22 seed Frances Tiafoe is now at 14/1 (with bet365) to win the tournament – after dismantling Rafael Nadal 6-4, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3. This is, without a doubt, the biggest win of young Tiafoe’s career.
He is also the only American left in the field and is now the crowd’s favourite to go the distance.
It will be difficult as he plays Andrey Rublev (12/1) next. Tiafoe arrived in New York with a tally of 21-18 – his highlights being the quarterfinal result in Washington D.C and the runner-up feat in Estoril.
Compared to the World No. 26, the ninth-seeded Rublev has had a better season with 36-14 and three titles. Although he is the same age as Tiafoe, he has had a more glittering career overall, including an Olympic Gold, three doubles Masters and two singles Masters finals.
That said, Rublev is not immune, as he stuttered at the Flushing Meadows against Denis Shapovalov and Laslo Djere last week.
In other news, Carlos Alcaraz has now moved up to 21/10 (with bet365) after Nadal’s exit and his own heroics against Marin Cilic.
The 19-year-old Spaniard fought valiantly to defeat the veteran Czech in five sets. Up until the Cilic match, Carlos had smooth sailing with straight-set wins over Sebastian Baez, Federico Coria, and Jenson Brooksby.
Overall, Alcaraz has six ATP finals in 2022, a tally of 48-9, and a singles ranking of World No. 4. Punters may want to lock him at the current odds before it slashes further.
He will next play Jannik Sinner – now at 5/1 – and understandably so. The World No. 13 has enjoyed a good season (38-11) – including quarterfinal appearances in the Aus Open and Wimbledon. However, Alcaraz seems to carry a hint of destiny. Sinner was also seen struggling in his last few matches in New York, which makes the Spaniard a more appealing bet.
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Swiatek, Still the Favourite in Women’s
Bookmakers pegged Iga Swiatek as the heavy favourite to win the 2022 US Open – and that has not changed one bit. The Pole has enjoyed a smooth sailing so far with convenient wins over Jasmine Paolini, Lauren Davis, Sloane Stephens, and Jule Niemeier.
Iga is at 15/8 (with bet365) – armed with a litany of titles in 2022 and an incredible tally of 54-7. The World No. 1 has been hard to beat, and despite her young age, she punching well above her weight without any care.
She plays Jessica Pegula next – one of the two Americans in the bracket.
Pegula is at 10/1 (with bet365) and while her season hasn’t been star-studded, she has been highly consistent. The World No. 8 most recently was a semifinalist in Toronto and a quarterfinalist in Cincinnati. She also beat the former #2 Petra Kvitova 6-3, 6-2, to stake her claim in round four.
Pegula had reached the same stage in two other Slams this season – Melbourne and Paris – but couldn’t go further. Amidst this, backing Swiatek is the smart move. However, Jessica is certainly skilled and experienced to topple the top seed.
Lastly, former US Open finalist Karolina Pliskova will play Aryna Sabalenka in the quarters.
Pliskova is now at 11/1 (with bet365) after beating Victoria Azarenka in three sets. The odds may seem a bit high, but that is a generous prize given her true ability. The 30-year-old is a former world number one who had struggled a bit this year due to injury.
However, she has picked up beautifully of late and continues to impress – reaching the semifinal in Toronto recently.
At the same time, Aryna Sabalenka – at 7/1 (with bet365) – makes for a good bet too. The 24-year-old is a two-time Grand Slam semifinalist and two-time doubles champion. She won the US Open doubles with Elise Mertens in 2019, and as a former World No. 2, and current No. 6, she has proven her mettle time and again.
Aryna has also been more consistent than Pliskova in 2022, which may prove to be a deciding factor. Between the two, Sabalenka is our pick.